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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.