Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
